BGA: Assessing Marcus Williams' chances of starting

In between now and training camp, I'm going to be looking at some of the veteran players on the Jets roster to assess what kind of contribution we might expect from them in 2016. Today, I'm going to take a look at cornerback Marcus Williams, who could be anything from a full-time starter to a situational role player based on the current depth chart.

I'll be assessing who Williams is up against in the battle for playing time and reviewing some of the factors that will be under consideration as he tries to establish his spot.

Note: Some stats from this article are exclusively provided by Pro Football Focus.

The contenders to start

When the Jets released Antonio Cromartie one year into the four-year contract he signed last March, they opened up a starting spot on the opposite side from Darrelle Revis. Williams is one of three main contenders to steal this role, but has arguably received the least attention out of the three as we head towards camp, despite a strong 2015 campaign.

Currently atop the depth chart is Buster Skrine. While Skrine has a reputation as a slot specialist, he did start on the outside for the Browns in the season before the Jets signed him to a long-term deal. Skrine arguably played the best football of his career during that season and so has proven he can handle such a role. 

Gaining momentum throughout the offseason has been Dee Milliner, who has so far stayed healthy and earned praise for his performances at OTAs and mini-camp. Milliner was a top-10 pick, so he was obviously drafted with the expectation of being an eventual starter, albeit not by this regime. Injuries have held him back since his rookie year where he struggled for most of the year, but performed tremendously over the last month. He ended up leading the league in passes defensed over the second half of his rookie season but has only started two games in the two years since then.

If Skrine ends up starting and Milliner ends up as the number three, then I'd expect Milliner to play on the outside in nickel situations, with Skrine reverting to the slot, as he did when starting for the Browns. That would be similar to how the Jets employed Kyle Wilson when Revis was injured in 2012. That was probably Wilson's best season.

With Skrine and Milliner garnering so much attention, Williams has flown under the radar, despite leading the Jets in interceptions in a rotational role in 2015. Let's look in more detail at that performance and what it tells us about his chances of beating out Skrine and/or Milliner.

Assessing Williams' 2015 performance

Williams made headlines last year with his knack for intercepting passes. In the end, he had six interceptions in fewer than 300 total snaps. He was one of only five NFL players - and just three cornerbacks - who had more than five interceptions last season and the other four all played at least 900 snaps. No other cornerback to play fewer than 300 snaps had more than two interceptions.

Here was one of those plays, a key play to ice the win over Miami in London:

Such playmaking ability would seem to suggest he might have deserved more playing time, especially with a struggling Cromartie and a banged-up Revis and Skrine ahead of him. His other coverage numbers were acceptable, as he allowed a completion percentage of 63 (better than Skrine's 67 percent) and gave up just two touchdowns and only one 30-yard play.

The concern might be that a bigger role might expose some of his flaws. If you triple his workload, it's far more likely to translate to six touchdowns than 18 interceptions. However, the main concern wasn't so much in terms of his coverage, as became clear when he did see an increase to his workload.

Williams played 30 snaps in the season opener due to a Cromartie injury that turned out not to be as bad as it looked, but then moved back into the fourth cornerback role and had played just 29 more snaps entering week eight. However, he was then called into action as a starter at safety due to an injury to Calvin Pryor and missed six tackles in a bad loss to the Raiders. After bouncing back with two interceptions as he moved back to a situational corner role the following week, he started the game after that against the Bills in place of Cromartie and missed four more tackles.

Ten missed tackles in the only two games where he played more than 30 snaps are certainly cause for concern, but he only had two missed tackles in the rest of the season, so is this a trend that we could expect to continue if his role was to increase? If only there were a bigger sample size of Williams starting to draw upon…

Looking back on 2014

Something often overlooked when assessing Williams is the fact that he actually started for the second half of the season with the Jets in 2014. Williams joined the Jets around midseason and was inserted into the starting lineup for his first appearance in week nine as the 1-7 Jets had been struggling to find a reliable starter. He managed to retain his job for the rest of the season with the Jets going 3-5 in his eight starts, so it's worth looking more closely at this spell.

The first thing to note is that he only had one interception in 455 snaps, which perhaps suggests that an expectation of his interception rate remaining high if you increase his snap count is unsustainable. Then again, that interception came in the penultimate game of the season, so it's possible he had started to develop his confidence to the point where he could start to make more plays on the ball and then carried that over to 2015.

In terms of his coverage numbers, while he gave up a 75 percent catch rate, he wasn't beaten for a touchdown and again only gave up one 30-yard play, in the last game of the year. Also, he gave up fewer yards per catch, so his yards-per-target in 2014 was in line with his 2015 season at a respectable average of just under eight.

What about the missed tackles, though? In those eight starts, he had seven, which is still not very good. However, once again, most of these were bunched together, as he had four in a loss to the Bills. Also, his missed tackle rate was nowhere near as bad as in 2015, as he missed one in every 65 snaps (23 in 2015) and had a tackle rate of 83 percent (61 percent in 2015).

Other considerations

Williams has made some minor contributions as a pass rusher (1.5 sacks last year) and on special teams (six tackles last season). He also hasn't been a major liability in terms of penalties, with just four in his two seasons, two of which came in his first game with the team. Like Skrine, he has the ability to play outside or in the slot, so that helps his chances of securing a top-three role.

Also, while it hasn't been a factor yet, he's a threat with the ball in his hands. He scored nine touchdowns in his college career, seven on interceptions and two on kickoff returns.

One final factor is that he's been more durable than Skrine and Milliner over the past two seasons. That could prompt the coaching staff to view him as a more reliable option. 

Conclusions

Williams has undeniably been an excellent pick-up, ironically poached from the Houston Texans by the John Idzik regime while Mike Maccagnan was still on their staff. Entering last year, it didn't seem like he'd have a high profile role or even that he was a lock to make the roster, but he made the most of his playing time and forced some crucial turnovers. With Cromartie gone, a younger player has to step up and Williams is in that mix.

However, while Williams has held up well in coverage even when teams have tried to pick on him, he's been disappointingly shaky as a tackler. He has a tendency to come up too fast trying to make a play and this led to some big plays last year, including two long touchdowns in the loss to the Raiders. That's something that can be improved upon if he works on his technique and, at 25 years old, he's still young enough to improve upon his weaknesses.

What's unusual is that the missed tackles he has had all seem to be bunched together. Fourteen of his 19 missed tackles have come in just three games and he's otherwise never had more than one in a game. Certainly, at times, these could be attributed to a lack of focus, so that's something he needs to convince the team isn't going to be an issue if the Jets are to place their trust in him to play more.

While we're concerned with missed tackles, it's worth remembering exactly who Williams would be replacing if he was to win the starting cornerback role. Cromartie had a reputation as a poor tackler over the course of his career, so even if Williams remains below average in terms of his tackling, that might not be a downgrade. That said, Cromartie did improve as a tackler over the duration of his time with the Jets. Still, perhaps that bodes well for the youngster Williams in terms of his own potential to improve that weakness.

Even if Williams only ends up as the fourth cornerback I would expect him to play a key role next year. The Jets regularly operated out of a four-cornerback dime package last year and Revis, Skrine and Milliner all missed time through injuries. 

Could he win the battle to start, though? Ultimately, the pads haven't even gone on yet, so it's still too soon to project which of the three contenders will win that starting role across from Revis. However, I think it's reasonable to suggest that the Jets have three viable candidates, so hopefully whoever shines enough to win the job in camp will do a good job. Don't rule out the possibility of Williams being that guy.